Oscars 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture, Actor and Actress?
The New York Times
The best picture race has been full of twists and turns. The best actress race is closely contested. Our expert predicts which films and artists will get trophies on Sunday.
After a few years where the best picture winner was practically ordained from the start of the season, at least this race has given us some twists and turns.
First, there was the saga of “Emilia Pérez,” which led the field with a near-record 13 nominations but collapsed in controversy after the unearthing of disparaging tweets by its star, Karla Sofía Gascón. Then “Anora,” a front-runner that was utterly shut out at January’s Golden Globes, scored top prizes from the producers, directors and writers guilds.
Those wins usually presage a best picture victory, especially because the producers guild uses a preferential ballot similar to the Academy’s. But in the late going, another contender began to surge as “Conclave” took the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where “Anora” was once again shut out) as well as best film honors at the BAFTAs, the British equivalent to the Oscars.
One thing gives me pause, though: If “Conclave” had the sort of across-the-board Academy support that a best picture winner can usually count on, it shouldn’t have missed out on slam-dunk Oscar nominations for directing and cinematography. “Anora” earned all the nominations it needed to, and its guild spread is hard to argue with, so that’s the film I project will win.
Baker picked up the DGA trophy but has strong competition from Corbet, who won best director at the BAFTAs. Still, I suspect the Academy will embrace “Anora” in both of the top categories. It helps that Baker has turned every acceptance speech he’s made this season into an upbeat rallying cry for theatrical independent filmmaking.
Brody has been collecting prizes all season, though his reign was halted last weekend when Chalamet scored a last-minute SAG win. But Chalamet faces headwinds from an Academy that remains stubbornly resistant to recognizing young men: No one under 30 has ever won the best actor Oscar except for Brody himself, who notched his win for “The Pianist” at age 29. Come Sunday, he’ll add a second Oscar to the mantel.
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