Lithuania holds a Presidential vote as anxieties rise in the Baltics over Russia and war in Ukraine

Lithuania's Presidential election on May 12 amid Russian tensions; incumbent Gitanas Nausėda favored, but runoff likely

Lithuania is holding a Presidential election on May 12 at a time when Russian gains on the battlefield in Ukraine are fueling greater fears across all of Europe about Moscow's intentions, but particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.

The popular incumbent, Gitanas Nausėda, is favored to win another five-year term. But there are eight candidates running in all, making it unlikely that he or any other candidate can win the 50% of the votes needed to win outright on May 12. In that case, a runoff would be held two weeks later on May 26.

The President's main tasks in Lithuania’s political system are overseeing foreign and security policy, and acting as the supreme commander of the armed forces. Those duties and the nation's strategic location along NATO's eastern flank amid a larger geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West add heft to the role despite Lithuania's relatively small size.

There is great concern in Lithuania, and in neighbouring Latvia and Estonia, about Russia's gaining momentum in Ukraine. All three Baltic states declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and took a determined westward course, joining both the European Union and NATO.

Mr. Nausėda, a moderate conservative who turns 60 a week after the election day, has been a strong backer of Ukraine, a position shared across most of the political spectrum. During his time in office, Lithuania has also given refuge to many who have fled an authoritarian crackdown in neighbouring Belarus and increased repression in Russia.

Mr. Nausėda, a former banker who entered politics with his successful presidential run in 2019, is seen as the “safe choice for voters of almost all ideological persuasions," said Tomas Janeliūnas, an analyst at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Polls show that his main opponents are Ignas Vėgėlė, a populist lawyer, who is in second place according to recent opinion polls, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who is in third place in the surveys.