India’s real GDP growth likely accelerated to 4.9% in Q4 of 2022-23

India’s real GDP growth likely accelerated to 4.9% in Q4 of 2022-23

India’s real GDP growth is likely to have picked up pace to 4.9% in the last quarter of 2022-23 from the 4.4% uptick recorded in the October to December 2022 quarter, rating agency ICRA said on Thursday.

For the full year gone by, ICRA has retained its 6.9% GDP growth projection, a tad lower than the 7% projected by the National Statistical Office that will release its Q4 growth estimates at the end of May.

“Notwithstanding higher volumes for most indicators, India’s GDP growth is likely to moderate to 6.9% in 2022-23 from 9.1% in 2021-22 given the margin compression in some industrial sectors owing to higher commodity prices, even as services sector displayed a robust performance in the year,” Aditi Nayar, chief economist at the firm told The Hindu.

However, when considered against pre-pandemic levels of 2019-20, the GDP growth last year would be about 10% higher, sharply over the 2.8% uptick seen in 2021-22, Ms. Nayar reckoned. ICRA has forecast India’s 2023-24 GDP growth at 6%.

The signals from economic activity in April are mixed so far, the agency said, citing a 28% month-on-month drop in vehicle registrations and a 6.6% fall in petrol sales, even as diesel sales rose 8.4% sequentially. Electricity demand this month has contracted 1.9% from April 2022 levels.