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Year 2023 may mark the lowest global growth since millennium, need to keep watch on commodity prices, says Tata Group chief
The Hindu
India is well positioned, to continue to be the fastest-growing major economy
Barring the pandemic and global financial crisis, next year may mark the lowest global growth since the millennium began, said Tata Sons’ chairman N. Chandrasekaran in his annual letter to Tata Group employees.
“We will need to keep careful watch on commodity prices in particular,” he cautioned.
“That said, next year we are likely to see inflation gradually moderate. India is well positioned, and we will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy supported by increasing consumption, consumer confidence and investment,” Mr. Chandrasekaran added.
He said the slowing global growth might act as a drag, but India’s rising share of global manufacturing should provide some buffer/insulation.
He said though the Tata Group had experienced significant milestones during the year, including “the welcoming of Air India back to the Group, the launch of Tata Neu and 5,00,000 Tata Motors cars sold within a calendar year, with Tata EV cars accounting for 10%,” the global environment had several risk factors, including the energy crisis in Europe, the battle to contain inflation to avoid recession and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
He said post-pandemic, there has been good improvement and stronger performance of companies across the group.
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The Union Budget unveiled on February 1, 2025, has come at a time of unprecedented global uncertainty and a flagging domestic economy. The real GDP growth is estimated at 6.4% for 2024-25 and between 6.3-6.8% for 2025-26, a far cry from >8 percent growth required annually to make India a developed nation by 2047. While much attention has been devoted to the demand stimulus through income tax cuts, not enough is said about the proposed reforms in urban development, tariff rationalisation, and regulatory simplification aimed at making Indian cities and corporates more competitive. Since the majority of economic activity is located in cities (urban areas account for ~55% of GDP) and produced by large corporates (~40% of the national output and 55% of India’s exports), the above-mentioned reforms have a pivotal role in improving India’s trend growth rate. Below we unpack each reform.