What the shadow war in Ukraine might say about a possible Russian invasion

There's a phrase used half in jest by the people in Ukraine's security services to describe potential Russian sleeper agents, political agitators and hired guns.

They're called "canned people."

Few are laughing about it today as the embattled eastern European country faces a growing wave of false bomb threats at metro stations in the capital Kyiv and at schools across the country, along with shadowy plots to attack critical infrastructure — some allegedly involving Russian organized crime gangs.

These "canned people" are so called because they're allegedly bought and paid for by the Russian intelligence services — primarily the Federal Security Service (FSB) — and then kept on the shelf until they're needed.

They could be older Ukrainians with Russian heritage who have more allegiance to Moscow than to Kyiv. They could also be Russian citizens who moved to the republic following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

CBC News conducted background interviews this week with Ukrainian security and defence officials about the rising turmoil they face and where it might lead.

At the end of January, the SBU, Ukraine's security service, announced that counterintelligence officers had "neutralized an organized criminal group coordinated by Russian special services" after raids in the cities of Zhytomyr and Kharkiv.

The aim, they said, was to attack civilian targets.

Security forces claim to have arrested 80 agents and spies in the past year.

The world's attention has been focused on the massive Russian military buildup on Ukraine's borders.

But the security officials and an expert in hybrid conflict say an equally dangerous shadow war is already underway inside the country — one that could soon escalate into violence.

While allied nations, including Canada, continue to warn of imminent military action on the part of Moscow, Ukrainians have a slightly different assessment.

Many Ukrainians believe that their country is still being softened up for invasion and the ongoing threats — including a massive cyberattack that temporarily took down government servers — are among the opening gambits. There are fears of subversion, assassination and even more widespread economic destabilization.

Terror attacks, civil disturbances and smear campaigns are all part of Russia's pre-invasion playbook and the tactics are being ripped straight out of the old Soviet-era KGB method of operations.