COP29 begins today. On the table this year: global uncertainty and a looming Trump presidency

Uncertainty and corruption are already looming over this year's climate negotiations, as delegates descend on oil-rich Baku to start talks Monday.

Azerbaijan, known as the land of fire for its oil-producing prowess, is the third petro-state in a row to host annual talks of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP29, which look to keep warming to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels, with an aim of limiting warming to 1.5 C. Nearly 200 countries agreed to the threshold in 2015's Paris Agreement.

"There's a lot at stake for COP29," says Catherine Abreu, director at the International Climate Politics Hub. "Whether we are able to leave Baku, Azerbaijan, with a successful outcome is going to rely a lot on countries showing leadership and operating in these conversations in good faith."

The crowning achievement at last year's COP28 in Dubai was a global consensus on the need to "transition away from fossil fuels."

But already, BBC News has exposed senior members of the COP29 team using the conference to arrange potential deals for fossil fuel expansion. And the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. has created uncertainty among climate groups, familiar with the former president's disdain for climate-related action.

"It's something we [the U.S.] are going to have to deal with," said Alden Meyer, of think-tank E3G. "It's critical what the reaction from the rest of the world is when we arrive in Baku."

While the Biden administration still holds power at these talks, climate experts, activists and diplomats are acutely aware that the incoming U.S. president campaigned on one-liners like "drill, baby, drill" and "frack, frack, frack." 

There are reports that Trump's transition team is already preparing to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, as he did in his first term. But this time, climate advocates fear a bigger impact.

"The Trump administration is going to be very prepared, unlike last time, which means the impact on the global climate policy framework is going to be far more than the last time," said Harjeet Singh, a director at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, which advocates for a phase-out of planet-warming fuels.

Dozens of climate-focused NGOs and civil society groups have hosted press briefings to react to the former president's re-election. Meyer called the U.S.'s vote a "political earthquake."

All countries at COP formally hold equal power in the UN process, but there's no question about the weight of the United States in multilateral negotiations, and also about the impact of its choices as one of the world's biggest and richest polluters. 

"We will be watching very closely on how U.S. negotiators behave at COP29," said Singh. "It looks like it's going to be a lame-duck situation where they can't take any major decision, they will be mostly silent."

However, political events also don't change the fact that action by the rest of the world is critical, Meyer said. 

"What's not changed is the impacts," he said. "Climate change is real — it's not affected by political elections and trends.