Ukraine digs in as the West stumbles to keep up with Russian war production

"War," said British philosopher, mathematician and pacifist Bertrand Russell, "does not determine who is right — only who is left."

Those words might be the perfect lens through which to view what probably lies ahead for Ukraine in the coming year as its troops dig in — and dig deep — along a front roughly 960 kilometres wide.

Beyond that front stretches a wasteland of occupied territory — the smoldering ruins of a months-long summer counteroffensive that fell short of allies' hype and failed to dislodge the Russian Army from the 20 per cent of the country it occupies.

Behind it lies a war-weary population, growing domestic political anxiety and infighting, and international allies who have grown more capricious — even delinquent.

Whether it's aid roadblocks in the U.S. Congress, empty arsenal shelves in Canada or the political tantrums pitched by hostile leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orban, the war that captured the world's attention in 2022 has undeniably entered a dangerous new phase.

Dangerous — because solidarity among Ukraine's allies has started to fray, while the domestic political consensus in Ukraine itself shows signs of unravelling.

Ukraine's ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations "has ended," said Matthew Schmidt, an Eastern Europe expert at the University of New Haven, Connecticut.

"I don't think it is believed amongst the political leadership yet," he said. "It's not an accepted fact."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tied his country's future — and his political future — to achieving the complete and total withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, penned a frank assessment of the battlefield conditions for the Economist last fall — one that contrasted with Zelenskyy's steadfast, optimistic public pronouncements.

Zaluzhnyi suggested the war was sliding toward a stalemate — a notion rejected by Zelenskyy even as the Ukrainian army began digging defensive positions along the line.

"Ukraine cannot continue to prosecute the war in the way that they have. It's that simple," said Schmidt, who estimated that without a new U.S. aid package, Ukraine's resources to prosecute the war could dry up as early as March. 

Once it became clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he couldn't conquer all of Ukraine quickly, he switched to a strategy of grinding attrition, banking that the western solidarity which characterized the immediate post-invasion climate would crumble.

Putin seems to be counting on the attention deficit disorder that currently characterizes democracies in the West eating away at Ukraine's support, and may be hoping for the return of Ukraine-skeptic Donald Trump to the White House.