Trump should be worried about this stock market indicator

Clues about how this election cliffhanger will end may be hiding in an unlikely place: Your 401(k).

Clues about how this election cliffhanger will end may be hiding in an unlikely place: Your 401(k). As people try to make sense of the latest swings in prediction markets and dramatic shifts in the share price in former President Donald Trump’s social media company, there’s a far simpler predictor with a surprisingly strong track record. It finds that the party in the White House tends to stay in power when the US stock market rises ahead of a presidential election. In all but two elections since 1944, the incumbent party has won the race for the White House when the S&P 500 advanced between the end of July and Halloween, according to CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, who came up with this election predictor. This indicator has accurately foreshadowed the winner 82% of the time. That’s why Trump, who closely follows the stock market and obsessed over it as president, should be nervous about the recent trend on Wall Street.