Trump seems to think America needs a recession. Some people are still recovering from the last one

The odds of a recession in the US may be creeping higher — but those rising risks do not mean a deep economic downturn is a foregone conclusion.

The odds of a recession in the US may be creeping higher — but those rising risks do not mean a deep economic downturn is a foregone conclusion. Still, that hasn’t stopped markets from being roiled and consumer and business confidence from being shaken, especially after President Donald Trump said he can’t rule out the possibility of such an event, or when Cabinet members indicated that a “detox period” is ahead and that the administration’s sweeping policies — including steep tariffs, mass deportations and drastic cutbacks in federal employment and spending — would be “worth it,” even if they trigger a recession. Research shows, however, that recessions can have deeply negative consequences for people, businesses and communities that are not only long lasting but, in some cases, irreversible. “What do we get from recessions? We get unemployment, we get lower incomes, we get debt default, we get increases in alcohol and drug abuse, psychological problems,” John Harvey, professor of economics at Texas Christian University, told CNN in an interview. While no two recessions are exactly alike, they do share some commonalities, according to the International Monetary Fund: They last about a year; economic output, consumption and trade activity decline; unemployment jumps; housing and equity values are eroded; financial markets experience turmoil; and inflation slows amid curtailed demand. While the impacts of such a downturn can vary widely, typically lower-income people are hit the hardest, and existing disparities only widen, said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.