Tough choices ahead for Canada as Ukraine and Russia teeter on brink of war

Canada's long-standing, stalwart support of Ukraine will be under new and intense pressure early in the new year, say experts and a former top military commander, as the West braces for possible military action by Russia, perhaps as soon as late January.

There could be as many as five possible scenarios on how the current crisis in Eastern Europe might play out, and they're almost all bad.

The assembly of over 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's eastern border and the possibility of a full-blown invasion has riveted the attention of western leaders and policy-makers. 

It is just one of the potential scenarios, although U.S, intelligence officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin has not made up his mind to use overwhelming military force and the Kremlin denies it is planning an invasion.

Canada, which originally sponsored Ukraine's bid to join NATO, and is among the country's biggest cheerleaders and defenders, will find it faces uncomfortable choices in the new year, both internationally and domestically. 

The U.S. and NATO have already said that they will not send troops to defend the country in the event of an invasion. That is cause for anxiety in the politically-active, occasionally strident, Canadian-Ukrainian diaspora population in this country.

The Liberal government will have to fall in line with other NATO allies, no matter how painful it becomes domestically.

Stefanie von Hlatky, associate professor of political studies at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont., said the challenge for the government will be to "play up what it is already doing in Ukraine."  

One of the things Canada is doing is helping to improve the combat skills of Ukrainian soldiers through an international training mission. It is an endeavour the Trudeau government has already signalled its willingness to renew, when the mandate expires in March of the coming year.

Defence Minister Anita Anand's mandate letter contained a reference to "extending" both Operation Unifer in Ukraine and Operation Reassurance, the overall Canadian military contribution to NATO's campaign of deterrence against Russia.

The Canadian military trainers in Ukraine, roughly 200 in all, would "quite possibly" have to be withdrawn in the event of major hostilities, said the country's top military commander.

"It is a capacity-building mission that we have there, it is not a combat mission," said Gen. Wayne Eyre, Canada's chief of the defence staff, in a recent interview with CBC News. 

"We have trainers who are focused on training, not fighting and so, as with any deteriorating situation, we would have to take a look at that situation and what we do with that force on the ground."

The possibility of having to make that decision underlines the delicate balancing act facing not only Canada, but NATO as a whole. In the face of a military crisis, there will be the need to show resolution without antagonizing Russia, or getting drawn into one of Moscow's disinformation campaigns.