The economic consequences of ‘America First’ 2.0

Doha, Qatar: The US elections were at the forefront of the global agenda. While it is a domestic event, national US policies have a global impact and...

Doha, Qatar: The US elections were at the forefront of the global agenda. While it is a domestic event, national US policies have a global impact and will determine the pace of the global economy for the next four years.

In fact, it is widely recognized that the US economy is not only crucial for long-standing American prosperity but also essential for global stability. Directly or indirectly, the world benefits from America’s extensive market infrastructure, deep financial system, and robust regulatory frameworks. With an expected nominal GDP of $29.2 trillion (Tn) in 2024, out of an aggregate of USD 110.1 Tn for the global economy, the US operates at a scale that is unmatched by other economic powers, QNB said in its economic commentary.  

Hence, it is important to understand the implications of the US election results for the global economy, particularly as President-elect Donald J. Trump has a comprehensive economic agenda.

After serving as the 45th president of the US in 2017-2021, Trump is not a new comer. Therefore, his economic agenda is well known for investors and analysts. Underpinned by the slogans “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) and “America First,” Trump’s economic agenda is pro-business, pro-capital, mercantilist, pro-domestic manufacturing. In other words, Trump supports de-regulation and less red tape in key industries, lower taxes for corporates and households, more public investments and subsidies for domestic manufacturing and defence, and a strong protectionist stance on foreign trade.

In our view, however, it is important to separate rhetoric from the facts on the ground and actual decision-making. When it comes to “America First” 2.0, this separation is more relevant than ever, particularly for the important topics of fiscal policies, foreign trade, and migration.