The Crypto Website Where the Election Odds Swing in Trump’s Favor
The New York Times
Donald Trump, Elon Musk and CNN have cited election predictions from Polymarket, a betting site where crypto enthusiasts have wagered more than $100 million on who will win the presidency.
Donald J. Trump posted a colorful graphic on social media this week, suggesting that he was headed for victory in the presidential election.
The graphic showed that Mr. Trump had a 64 percent chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month — a much rosier picture for him than the polls that indicate the election remains a tossup. Mr. Trump’s post was liked more than 10,000 times, as his fans responded with emojis of raised fists and Americans flags.
The election odds cited by Mr. Trump came from a crypto-powered gambling website called Polymarket. Using digital currencies, gamblers on Polymarket have wagered more than $100 million on the outcome of the presidential race, turning the site into the internet betting phenomenon of the 2024 election.
Elon Musk has promoted Polymarket’s odds on X, calling them “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” CNN and other news media organizations have featured the projections in their election coverage. And as the market has swung heavily in Mr. Trump’s favor, he has relentlessly publicized the site’s numbers, seeking to create a sense of inevitability about the election’s outcome.
“A gambling poll, as they call it,” Mr. Trump said recently of Polymarket. “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means that we’re doing pretty well.”
But Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity.
Fuel prices, which had soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have dropped to their lowest level since February.
JPMorgan’s chief executive has told associates of his support for the vice president, and his dislike of Donald Trump. But fearful of blowback, he won’t say it publicly.
Forest City was an audacious $100 billion project by a top Chinese developer. Today, the project is a fraction of what had been planned and the developer is broke.
Steps to bolster the economy have set off a stock buying frenzy. Our columnist spoke to Chinese investors about why they are jumping in knowing the risks.
Mr. Musk, who holds billions in federal contracts, wants to be in charge of the regulators that oversee him if Donald Trump wins.
The league is trying to ensure that sponsors, media partners and enthusiasm are in place before committing to playing a game in the country.
The biggest pharmacy benefit managers are profiting by systematically underpaying independent drugstores, creating “pharmacy deserts” across the country.
The show which premiered in the U.S. in 2009, has broadcast the stress of the Great Recession, the allure of Silicon Valley, the upheaval of the Covid pandemic and now, whatever this economy is.
The “best bromance in tech” has had a reality check as OpenAI has tried to change its deal with Microsoft and the software maker has tried to hedge its bet on the start-up.
Mary Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, said that the company had fixed battery-manufacturing problems and that its electric vehicles would soon be profitable.
Researchers found that when remote workers were paid to move to Tulsa, Okla., everyone came out ahead.