Ontario promised to build 1.5 million homes by 2031. A new report says that will likely never happen

Ontario is unlikely to meet its lofty goal of building 1.5 million homes by 2031 to alleviate the housing crisis, according to a new report from the Smart Prosperity Institute, an Ottawa-based think-tank.

During the housing crisis, there have been sharp increases in rents and real estate prices, and an increased rate of homelessness in the province. 

The think-tank's report, looking at whether Ontario's house-building goal is not only accurate but also attainable, is entitled "Ontario's need for 1.5 million more homes." It was published Tuesday by the Smart Prosperity Institute at the University of Ottawa.

The report says Ontario is already grappling with a shortage of about 500,000 homes and needs another one million to satisfy forecasted demand created by a growing population by 2031 — a goal Ontario is unlikely to reach.

"I would say, unfortunately no," said Mike Moffatt, an economist with the Smart Prosperity Institute and the paper's lead researcher. "There are so many bottlenecks that we need to address in the next five to 10 years."

Among them, Moffatt said, are the official growth plans of Ontario's 444 municipalities, many of which are planning for much lower building figures for new housing than the ambitious target Ontario has set for itself. 

As an example, in  London, the city needs almost 40,000 homes to satisfy demand created by its growing population by 2031, according to Moffatt, but the city's official plan estimates it only needs about half that number.

"The London Plan assumes we're going to build about 22,000," Moffatt told CBC News, noting it's not the only official plan that underestimates the amount of housing needed in the next nine years.

"Those really aren't compatible with the provincial government's housing targets," he said. "So the Ford government has a difficult choice: do they approve all of these municipal plans knowing they are probably insufficient for the housing goal, or do they tell the municipalities to go back to the drawing board, which could ruffle some feathers?"

In other words, the province risks being accused of interfering in local affairs or criticized for creating sprawl by developing Ontario's farmland, which is already disappearing at an alarming rate.

On top of this, Moffatt said, Ontario is grappling with a shortage of skilled trades, due in part to a rapidly aging industry where many older workers are looking to hang up their hard hats for good. 

"We need to essentially double the amount of people in the skilled trades at a time when many of them are retiring." 

Moffatt said the province needs new policies that increase productivity in the housing construction business, but so far, those policies don't exist. 

Still, the Progressive Conservative government said Monday it has already delivered "historic results" when it comes to building new homes.