'No one will ever listen to Russia:' Why Ukraine is winning the propaganda war

On the very first day of Russia's invasion, a tiny island along Ukraine's Black Sea coast became an early target. It was a minor military loss that Kyiv would turn into a major propaganda victory, in a narrative aimed at a Western audience as much as a domestic one.

Ukraine was about to show its strength at information warfare in the global arena; Russia, to reveal its unexpected weakness at influencing foreign opinion in this conflict, especially in the West.

"Its standing in the world is damaged, probably beyond repair," said Ilya Metveev, a St. Petersburg-based political analyst. Moscow "understands now that it is useless to push Russia's narrative in the West. Whatever they try, this will not work."

As Russian patrol ship Vasily Bykov turned its guns on Snake Island on Feb. 24 and demanded surrender, a Ukrainian border guard defiantly radioed back "Russian warship, go f--k yourself." 

That recording was quickly circulated by Ukrainian officials, and the guard became a national hero, praised that day by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his sacrifice.

What happened after is a little fuzzy.

At the time, Zelensky said "all the border guards died heroically" in the subsequent attack. It seems they were captured, as Ukraine's navy announced a few days later, then released by Russia. The guard who uttered the now-famous line appeared in person to receive a medal last week. 

Days after the Snake Island attack, the Russian warship was reported seriously damaged or destroyed by the Ukrainian navy off the coast of Odesa, with video of the missile attack going viral. But that, too, has since been questioned, with multiple pictures of what appears to be the Vasily Bykov posted online.

Still, the incident set the propaganda tone for Ukrainian resistance from the start, and will be immortalized on a stamp, says Kyiv.

It's the kind of "mythical" tale that has distinguished Ukraine's surprisingly sophisticated fighting spirit in the information war against Russia, just as in the real one, said Ian Garner. He's a lecturer and researcher at Queen's University who is writing a book on Russian propaganda.

Between efforts like this and the stirring speeches delivered almost daily by Zelensky — often directly addressing foreign decision makers or the public in Western countries — Garner said Kyiv has been "mounting a very clever, really smart info war." 

Ukraine's success depends on it. Kyiv needs to keep the West onside, to keep billions of dollars in much-needed weaponry flowing across the borders from NATO to its fighters, and to keep tough Western economic sanctions pressing Russia.

The Zelensky posts, sometimes done as selfies outside with only street lights at night, and always in a casual T-shirt, may "look ad hoc and somewhat unscripted," said Garner, but are almost certainly "productions that have been planned and thought through."

Zelensky's address to the U.K. Parliament invokes wartime prime minister Winston Churchill. His speech to Ottawa stresses a first-name relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and includes familiar Canadian references. And, always, hitting the right notes to portray Ukraine as the feisty underdog who deserves help from the West.