Is the first use of nuclear weapons ever justified? A top adviser to Vladimir Putin now says yes

Blood-curdling bluster from Russian propagandists about nuking Western cities has been a mainstay of state-controlled television programs since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

But what's new — and chilling — for many in Western strategic circles is how the discussion and specific warnings have evolved to include Russia's top political thinkers, including some with especially close links to President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.

"The enemy must know that we are ready to deliver a pre-emptive strike ... to prevent a slide into global thermonuclear war," wrote Sergei Karaganov, chair of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a prestigious Russian think-tank, and an adviser to Putin.

Karaganov is believed to be one of the architects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has frequently provided an ideological justification for waging war on that country.

Laid out in an article titled "A Difficult but Necessary Decision," Karaganov's thinking appears to be that to prevent a civilization-ending nuclear war, Russia needs to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons and consider initiating a smaller, containable attack that will split the NATO alliance and ensure Russia emerges victorious against Ukraine.

He says the only way Russia may be able to break the will of Western countries so they stop helping Ukraine is by launching nuclear weapons at "a bunch of targets in a number of countries."

Putin and members of Russia's ruling elite continually present their country's unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a defensive struggle. In fact, it's a war of aggression and empire-building.

Not long after Karaganov's article was published, another politically well-connected Russian foreign policy analyst, Dmitri Trenin, doubled down on his own view.

Nuclear deterrence has not stopped the West from trying to contain and destroy Russia by conducting a proxy war in Ukraine, he argued.

"To avoid a general catastrophe, it is necessary to return fear to politics and public consciousness," Trenin wrote.

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center until it closed in April 2022, and his opinions were widely respected and sought after by Western governments and institutions.

The ratcheting up of the nuclear threats coincide with the launch of Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive to try to retake Russian-occupied territory, with the stakes for both countries about as high as they can get.

Many Ukrainians believe their existence as a nation can only be guaranteed if Russian troops are pushed back to 2014 borders, including reclaiming the strategically important Crimean Peninsula.

Many Russians, especially those in government, see a defeat in Ukraine as unthinkable and something that must be prevented at all costs.