If Trump imposes tariffs, what could Canada’s provinces stand to lose?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said a 'Team Canada approach' is going to be vital in the face of sweeping new tariffs being pledged by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the premiers of Canada’s provinces will meet Wednesday evening after U.S. president-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said a “Team Canada approach” is going to be vital in the face of sweeping new tariffs pledged by Trump.

For the premiers, safeguarding their exports and economies is top of mind.

Eric Johnson, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said some of Canada’s biggest provinces would have a lot to lose if the tariffs go into effect.

“Ontario really does come to mind here. Alberta does as well,” he said.

As of 2022, Canada’s biggest export to the United States in terms of value was crude oil, worth $152.6 billion. According to Statistics Canada, the U.S. accounted for 97.4 per cent of Canada’s crude oil exports, with Alberta contributing to 87.4 per cent of the total volume exported to the U.S.

In her reaction to the tariff threat, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said in a social media post that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities” at the border, referencing Trump’s stated border security concerns.

But she added that a vast majority of Alberta’s energy exports to the U.S. are “delivered through secure and safe pipelines,” which “do not in any way contribute to these illegal activities.”