Exim data revised, trade deficit narrows by $10 billion

Import bill estimates were revised up or down by an average $2.3 billion every month, meaning that the trade deficit hit an all-time high last September, not last July

India’s foreign trade data for the first eight months of 2022-23 has been significantly revised, with the import bill being scaled up or down by at least $2 billion in each of those months, in comparison to the preliminary estimates issued by the Ministry of Commerce.   

Total merchandise exports between April and November are now pegged at $298.3 billion, nearly $12 billion higher than original monthly data suggested. The import bill in those eight months is now estimated to be $493.5 billion, about $1.7 billion higher than initial numbers. The trade deficit in the first eight months of the year is $10 billion lower than indicated by adding up monthly preliminary estimates. 

Economists said that such wide variations in data are unusual and make it difficult to formulate appropriate policies, especially when a critical focus area for the economy is managing the widening current account deficit, fuelled by rising imports and a feared slowdown in exports amid a global recession. 

The import figure for September 2022 has seen the sharpest revision, from an earlier estimate of just $61.1 billion to the year’s highest tally at $64.7 billion. September now marks the worst monthly trade deficit of $29.23 billion for India. 

As per earlier data, July 2022 was reckoned to have the worst goods trade deficit on record of $30 billion, but its import bill has been subsequently scaled down sharply from $66.3 billion to a little short of $64 billion, while exports have been raised by $2.1 billion. Consequently, July’s deficit is now pegged at just $25.6 billion, which was in fact lower than the deficit recorded over the next three months. 

October and August 2022 recorded the second and third highest monthly deficits in merchandise trade at $27.4 billion and $26.8 billion, with the import bill for these months being revised up by $2.3 billion and almost $2 billion, respectively. 

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