Does Uncertainty Harm the Economy? Business Leaders Are About to Find Out.
The New York Times
The lack of clarity about tariffs and other policies could hurt hiring and investing. But the strong U.S. economy should provide a buffer.
It is an axiom heard countless times in business school lecture halls and on corporate earnings calls: Uncertainty is bad for business.
The U.S. economy is about to test that proposition like never before.
The first weeks of the second Trump administration have been a dizzying whirlwind of economic policy moves: A spending freeze was declared, then rescinded. Federal programs, and even entire agencies, have been suspended or shut down. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, canceled, delayed or enacted — sometimes in a matter of days or even hours. Measures of economic policy uncertainty have soared to levels normally associated with recessions and global crises.
Business leaders — many of whom cheered President Trump’s election victory, expecting lower taxes and reduced regulation — have been left shaking their heads.
“Your guess is as good as mine what’s happening in Washington,” said Nicholas Pinchuk, chief executive of the automotive toolmaker Snap-on.
“So far what we’re seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford Motor, told investors at a conference in New York this week.
After the arrival of a less costly A.I. model from China, U.S. markets and academics are wrestling with the ultimate economic value of the technology.
Dallas built its team’s identity around Luka Doncic, on the court and off. Now that he’s gone, some supporters no longer feel a connection to the franchise.
The employment data is forecast to show a strong labor market on the eve of the transition to the administration of President Trump.
The canal’s two biggest ports are operated by a Hong Kong company with global reach. The Trump administration sees a Chinese threat to U.S. security.
The distinctive domed building, turning 50 this year, is known for hosting the Super Bowl, but to locals, it’s also “the city’s living room.”
Black-owned brands got a foot in the door through accelerator programs at big retailers like Target and Amazon. Now they worry the door might be closing.
The trade deficit has long drawn the president’s ire. Now, he’s preparing to take it on again.
American companies intent on making goods in the United States are fretting over the impact of tariffs on their access to parts and raw materials.
A growing number of countries, including American allies, are striking trade deals as the Trump administration erects a higher fence around its global commerce.
The invoking of national security to unravel trade agreements could scramble the international trading system in China’s favor.
Canada, Mexico and China account for more than a third of the products brought into the United States. Tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers.