Data | Will BA.2 lead to another surge in India?

Data show that the rise in cases recorded between December 2021 and mid-January 2022 in India (dubbed as the Omicron wave) was in most part due to the BA.2 sub-lineage

COVID-19 cases are peaking in several East and Southeast Asian and European countries. The surge is fuelled mainly by the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant. The rapid rise has caused anxiety in India. Data show that the rise in cases recorded between December 2021 and mid-January 2022 in India (dubbed as the Omicron wave) was in most part due to the BA.2 sub-lineage. So, while the sub-lineage has just become dominant in other nations, it became dominant in India as early as January 2022. Moreover, hospitalisation data show that BA.2 is milder than the previous variants

 The graph shows the average cases in select countries since October 1, 2021. South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, Austria, Thailand and Malaysia recorded their pandemic peaks in the last 10 days. India recorded its second-highest case peak between December 2021 and January 2022 (Omicron wave)

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The graph shows the % share of cases due to various Omicron sub-lineages across countries between December 2021 and March 2022

The graph shows the % of ICU beds, % of ventilator beds and the % of oxygen beds that were occupied in Mumbai during the three pandemic waves in India. As can be seen from the graph, the share of hospital beds occupied across categories barely crossed the 20% mark during the Omicron wave whereas it reached 100% during the previous waves. As the Omicron wave was mostly fuelled by BA.2 in India, the sub-lineage can be termed as milder than past variants

Source: Outbreak.info, Our world in Data, @Shananalla

Also read: Recombination of two virus variants seen since 2020