Data | Dissecting India’s second COVID-19 wave

Since April 3, India has been consistently recording the highest number of daily cases globally, surpassing the U.S. and Brazil on an average

The appears to be ascending faster than the first wave that peaked in mid-September last year. It is crucial to note that the number of COVID-19 tests being conducted daily during the second wave is much higher than the first. Currently, the positivity rate (cases found per 100 tests) is still lower than that in the first wave in many high burden States. Also, due to an enormous rise in cases and a not-so-sharp rise in deaths, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR: deaths/ cases) is either stable or even decreasing across States. Nevertheless, India is already leading the world in terms of average daily cases detected and registers the third-highest average daily deaths. A significant drop in already low testing levels after the first wave and a weakened contact tracing system as the pandemic advanced, besides a surge in public mobility, could be the reasons behind the second wave. Initially, the second wave was confined to a few States. Currently, barring a few States and Union Territories, all regions are recording spikes in varying degrees. While the States have responded well by increasing testing levels, this is still not sufficient compared to the size of their respective outbreaks. Also, India’s vaccination drive is on a slow lane, and wide disparities exist among States in the number of doses being administered.