Climate change: Punjab's cotton, maize yield to dip by 11-13% by 2050, says report

Punjab accounts for around 12% of the total cereals produced in the country.

Climate change is predicted to reduce maize and cotton yield in Punjab by 13% and 11% by 2050, according to a new study conducted by agriculture economists and scientists at Punjab Agricultural University (PAU).

Punjab accounts for around 12% of the total cereals produced in the country.

The study published in the Mausam journal of the India Meteorological Department earlier this month used rainfall and temperature data collected between 1986 and 2020 to project the impact of climate change on five major crops -- rice, maize, cotton, wheat, and potato -- in the agrarian state.

The researchers collected climate data from five weather observatories of Punjab Agricultural University, ie Ludhiana, Patiala, Faridkot, Bathinda, and SBS Nagar.

The researchers -- agricultural economist Sunny Kumar, scientist Baljinder Kaur Sidana and PhD scholar Smily Thakur -- said that long-term changes in climatic variables show that the rise in temperature is driving most of the changes, rather than the change in rainfall pattern.

"One of the most intriguing findings is that changes in minimum temperature have resulted in changes in mean temperature throughout all growing seasons. It means that the minimum temperature has shown a rising trend," the report said.

A rise in minimum temperature is harmful to the yield of rice, maize, and cotton. On the contrary, excess minimum temperature is beneficial for potato and wheat yield, it noted.