China braces for tensions after Trump victory in U.S.

China prepares for unpredictable U.S. relations under Trump's second term, facing potential tariffs, trade tensions, and Taiwan disputes.

The first time China faced Donald Trump in the White House, there was a trade war, a breach of protocol involving Taiwan’s former leader, and a President-to-President ‘bromance’ that turned sour.

As President-elect Mr. Trump prepares to start his second term in office, China is bracing for unpredictability in its ties with the United States and renewed tensions over trade, technology, and Taiwan.

Perhaps the biggest consequence for China — if Mr. Trump stays true to his campaign promises — is his threat to slap blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S.

Tariffs like that would be a blow to China’s already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump, and government debt. A 60% duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China’s projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.

During Mr. Trump’s previous term in office, the U.S. imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion of Chinese products. That brought Beijing to the negotiating table, and in 2020 the two sides signed a trade deal in which China committed to improve intellectual property rights and buy an extra $200 billion of American goods. A research group a couple of years later showed China had bought essentially none of the goods it had promised. Outgoing President Joe Biden retained most of those tariffs and added fresh duties this year on imports including steel, solar cells, and electric vehicles.

Factoring into the trade talks could be Mr. Trump’s appeals to Chinese President Xi Jinping to help negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine war, which Mr. Trump has boasted he will be able to do quickly, without saying how.

Mr. Trump previously sought Mr. Xi’s help in dealing with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un. That dynamic could repeat itself, with Mr. Trump weighing trade grievances against seeking China’s support in global crises, according to Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.