Canadian, U.S. farmers expect big fertilizer bills amid Trump trade war

As they face already low grain prices, Canadian and U.S. farmers are bracing for an increase in the cost of fertilizer amid President Donald Trump's trade war.

With only weeks until spring planting on both sides of the border gets underway, Canadian and U.S. farmers, already facing low grain prices, are bracing for another economic blow: even bigger fertilizer bills amid a North American trade war.

Some farming supply costs already turned sharply higher due to trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. After threatening tariffs for months, U.S. President Donald Trump enacted 25 per cent duties on most Canadian products on Tuesday before announcing a one-month reprieve on some goods, including fertilizers, on Thursday.Canada said on Thursday it will delay a planned second wave of retaliatory tariffs until April 2.

Many U.S. farmers need to add potassium to their soils, so they use potash fertilizer – much of which comes from the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. Canadian farmers in turn often need to add phosphorus to their soils, so they buy phosphate – much of which comes from Florida.

Saskatchewan farmer Scott Hepworth, who has already been paying high prices for the U.S. phosphate fertilizer he uses to help his canola and wheat fields flourish, now fears prices could spike more due to the trade war.

“When will this end? How bad will this get?” said Hepworth, as he gathered with other farmers at the Canadian Crops Convention on March 5.

Fertilizer is most farmers’ biggest input cost. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that 22 per cent of total corn production costs come from fertilizer, and that includes labor, machinery and overhead expenses.

The price of potash has risen from US$303 per short ton on Jan. 3 to US$348 on February 28 ahead of the tariffs.

“Potash has seen price strength in all the confusion (and) fear of the tariffs,” said fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX. “There were strong fundamental reasons for potash prices to rise, but it was the tariff fears that eventually caught up with it.”