As Trump seeks a deal with Putin, will Western companies return to Russia?

As Moscow and Washington discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, one of the many questions on investors’ minds is whether the corporate exodus from Russia in opposition to the February 2022 invasion of its neighbor may be reversed.

One of the many questions raised by discussions between Moscow and Washington on ending the war in Ukraine is whether the corporate exodus from Russia in opposition to the February 2022 invasion may be reversed. As long as broad Western sanctions on Russia remain in place, that looks unlikely, but should US President Donald Trump’s administration seek to ease restrictions, it could open the door for some companies to return to what was once a high-growth market. Here is a rundown of the situation. More than a thousand companies from McDonald’s (MCD) to Mercedes-Benz have left Russia in the last three years by selling, handing the keys to existing managers or abandoning assets. Others like Danone and Carlsberg had their assets seized and a sale forced through. Western companies have acknowledged losses totaling $107 billion, including lost revenue, according to a Reuters analysis in March 2024. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, says US companies have lost $324 billion by leaving Russia. When exiting, companies such as McDonald’s, Renault and Henkel agreed options to buy the assets back. France’s Renault sold its majority stake in Russian carmaker Avtovaz in May 2022 for reportedly just one ruble, but with a six-year option to buy it back.