As Israel and Hezbollah inch toward war, Canada braces for a repeat of the 2006 evacuation

Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly had a stark warning Tuesday for Canadian citizens in Lebanon.

"If the armed conflict intensifies, it could impact your ability to leave the country and our ability to provide you with consular services," she said. "Canada is not currently offering assisted departures or evacuations for Canadians in Lebanon, and these are not guaranteed.

"My message to Canadians has been clear since the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East: it is not the time to travel to Lebanon. And for Canadians currently in Lebanon, it is time to leave, while commercial flights remain available."

Canadian officials are acutely aware of the fact that a large-scale Israeli air attack on Lebanon could force Canada to evacuate thousands of citizens under fire, as it did during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.

Canada spent $94 million and leased seven ships to evacuate Canadians from Lebanon to Cyprus and Turkey in 2006.

Three naval ships participated in the operation. Even the prime minister's jet was roped into service.

The evacuation led to complaints in Canada about "citizens of convenience" after reports emerged that many evacuees returned to live in Lebanon as soon as it was safe to do so.

Canada ultimately evacuated about 15,000 people. Today, a similar number of Canadian citizens have registered with the embassy in Lebanon. Joly has said that is likely just a "fraction" of the true number of Canadians in the Middle Eastern country.

Canada doesn't have many resources in the area right now. The frigate HMCS Charlottetown entered the Mediterranean Tuesday morning, steaming through the Strait of Gibraltar on its way to join NATO's Maritime Group 2.

The utility of Cyprus as a base of operations has also been cast into some doubt after Hezbollah warned the island's government that it could be a target if it assists Israel in an attack on Lebanon.

Cyprus is within range of the Zelzal-2 ballistic missiles Hezbollah acquired from Iran, and the M-600 missiles it got from Syria.

"What worries me most is the possibility of a war as a result of miscalculation rather than planning or by design," former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas told CBC News. "Someone misinterprets the other side's intention."

For months, Israel and Hezbollah have been trading artillery and missile fire across the border, and Israel has also engaged in air and drone strikes as far north as Beirut.

Homes, fields and forests have burned in the farming communities that dot the hilly landscape. Close to 500 people have died, mostly in Lebanon.