Yahya Sinwar's death offers exits from the war, but will Israel take them?

In the end, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, who masterminded the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and then spent more than a year evading one of the largest and most destructive manhunts in history, may finally have met his demise almost by fluke.

As part of a regular military patrol — rather than acting on specific intelligence — it appears a group of Israeli soldiers and tank crew members opened fire on three suspected militants in a building in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Wednesday.

It was only after they removed the rubble that they discovered the body of what appeared to be the world's most wanted man, dead among the debris.

"A year ago he was victorious. Now he is eliminated. Where will you be in a year?" Amir Ohana, the Speaker of Israel's Knesset, wrote on X as the news broke Thursday afternoon.   

He urged Sinwar's followers in Gaza to lay down their weapons, suggesting it's pointless for the group to continue with the armed struggle against Israel now that its leader is dead.

Sinwar, the Hamas military chief who spent 22 years in jail for killing two Israeli soldiers, meticulously planned and launched the Oct. 7 attacks that killed more than 1,200 in Israel and captured 251 hostages.  

Many — likely most — Israelis saw Sinwar as evil incarnate.

His long-sought death represents an inflection point not just for Hamas and Israel's war in Gaza but possibly also for the broader Palestinian struggle for self-determination. 

Less clear is whether his demise will hasten the end of Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon or de-escalate the dangerous situation with Iran — or if the moment will pass with little noticeable difference.

Israeli analysts say the most immediate impact of Sinwar's killing is that it will close an open wound which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will get credit for.

"It is very momentous news," said Miri Eisin, a retired colonel with the Israel Defence Forces and intelligence specialist. "It's something that had to happen."

For Netanyahu to be able to say Sinwar caused Oct. 7 attacks and is now dead, "for him, is a win," she told CBC News.

Netanyahu's first comments after Sinwar's death appeared to suggest that, at least in Gaza, there will be no immediate change in tactics.

More than 42,000 people in the Palestinian territory have been killed by Israeli attacks over the past year — with a further 76,000 injured, more than a million and a half people displaced and most of the buildings and other structures razed to the ground.