Xi's no-show at the G20 is another sign of deepening divisions around the world

No one expected Vladimir Putin to show up in New Delhi for this weekend's G20 summit. He didn't go to the G20 last year in Indonesia, either. He didn't even risk showing up in South Africa for the recent BRICS summit, despite his friendly relationship with the ruling African National Congress.

That's life under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for you.

But the decision by China's President Xi Jinping to also skip the G20, and to send Premier Li Qiang in his place, appeared to be a last-minute snub of host nation India. It's a sign that this summit isn't likely to resolve the geopolitical fissure that is increasingly dividing the world into two camps.

Xi's absence may be meant to send a message that China no longer feels a need to meet with other countries at the highest level. It may reflect a desire to avoid being forced to endorse or reject statements Xi is uncomfortable with, such as condemnations of its Russian ally for its invasion of Ukraine.

Whatever the intended message, Xi's no-show risks being interpreted as a sign of weakness — of a fear of being outnumbered or of being upstaged by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It could even indicate a fear of being absent from China at a time of economic malaise and rumbles of public discontent.

Last year's G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia took place in an atmosphere of high tension over the invasion in Ukraine. Putin stayed away but Xi did not.

To the surprise of many — and thanks partly to the skilful backstage manoeuvres of host President Joko Widodo — the summit was able to produce a joint declaration that all twenty members were able to sign, including Russia.

It dealt with the elephant in the room by stating that "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine," while adding that "there were other views."

"The absence of both leaders, Putin and Xi, confirms that the division caused by the Russian war in Ukraine now really has reached the G20," Hung Tran, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, told CBC News.

"So the G20, in my view, will be transformed from a premier forum for international economic policy coordination into a forum for two sides — the advanced countries represented by the G7 and the developing countries which the BRICS aspire to coordinate and represent.

"So, basically like a mini-UN, which is a very sad development."

The BRICS is an alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It made its appearance in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, as did the G20 leaders' summit.

It was created by four large nations that felt excluded from global decision-making. South Africa joined the group in 2010.