World Economic Forum 2024 | Chief economists expect global economy to weaken in 2024, shows survey

A survey of chief economists warns of a weakening global economy, increased geo-economic fragmentation, and uncertainties in AI and industrial policies.

As the top leaders from across the world gather in Davos for their annual congregation, a survey of chief economists on January 15 forecast a weakening of the global economy in 2024 and accelerated geo-economic fragmentation.

Warning of more economic uncertainty, the Chief Economists Outlook report of the World Economic Forum (WEF) said the global economic prospects remain subdued. It said that the global economy continues to grapple with headwinds from tight financial conditions, geopolitical rifts and rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI).

More than half of chief economists (56%) expected the global economy to weaken this year, while 43% foresee unchanged or stronger conditions. However, the outlook for South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific remained positive, with a strong majority expecting at least moderate growth in 2024.

China emerged as an exception, with a smaller majority (69 per cent) expecting moderate growth as weak consumption, lower industrial production and property market concerns weigh on the prospects of a stronger rebound.

Globally, a strong majority also said labour markets (77%) and financial conditions (70%) will loosen over the coming year.

Although expectations for high inflation have been pared back in all regions, regional growth outlooks vary widely, and no region is slated for very strong growth in 2024.