With Trump's return, another wave of uncertainty washes over Canadian politics

For Canadians, American democracy is a spectator sport, a source of eternal concern and a measuring stick — a spectacle we regard with a mix of fascination, inspiration, fear and powerlessness, all the while defining ourselves by how we compare.

The United States is both our loud neighbour and — by orders of magnitude — our most valuable trading partner. But living beside (and under the umbrella of) the world's most powerful democracy has also brought with it a certain peace of mind. At least, until recently.

Now, once again, Canada is forced to confront the profound uncertainty that comes with living beside, and being so deeply entwined with, a country whose highest elected office will soon be held by Donald J. Trump. 

The election of Trump in 2016 was a shock. It upended assumptions about what could be taken for granted in American politics and the global order. And the four years that followed were tense and unpredictable, raising unforeseen challenges and incredible distractions for Canadian leaders.

Almost immediately after the 2016 result, Justin Trudeau's government scrambled to respond to his desire to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement — a drama that took more than a year to resolve. As the United States moved to crack down on immigration, individuals and families started crossing into Canada at Roxham Road.

Just before Canada Day in 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, initiating a trade war that lasted into 2019. The G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended in acrimony and threatening tweets. 

"It is as difficult a moment as we have ever faced as a country," Bob Rae, now Canada's ambassador to the United States, wrote in the summer of 2018.

Beyond the most direct causes for concern, Trudeau and his ministers were regularly asked (or compelled) to respond to events south of the border: Trump's decision to pull the United States out of international climate accords, the Trump administration's policy of separating migrant children from their parents, and the use of police and military force against protesters (which famously left Trudeau speechless for 21 seconds before he offered a relatively diplomatic response).

Joe Biden's election in 2020 offered some relief. It held out the promise of a return to normalcy. And it left open the possibility that Trump's four years in office were an aberration.

That was always wishful thinking. But Tuesday night's result was unavoidable proof that the election of Donald Trump to the office of president of the United States was neither a fluke nor a fleeting phenomenon.

If anything, the next four years threaten to be more disruptive and unnerving than the first four. Canadian officials can draw on the experience of what happened and how this country responded between 2016 and 2020, but the challenges could be more severe and Trump's actions more dramatic.

The Trump administration may seek to revisit NAFTA. But even if NAFTA is left alone, there is the threat of a global import tariff that would not only damage Canada's economy but could roil the global economy. 

If Trump moves forward with mass deportations of immigrants from the United States, his actions could send people scrambling toward Canada in search of safety. The future of the NATO security alliance is now uncertain and the Canadian government will face renewed pressure to quickly increase military spending.

The consequences for Ukraine could be much more significant.