Will voter fatigue and inflation be Trudeau's undoing?

Eight and a half years ago, in January 2015, the Liberal Party's 36-member caucus gathered in London, Ont. ahead of a new sitting of Parliament.

There was some reason at the time to believe their leader, Justin Trudeau, would be the next prime minister of Canada. But some of the original shine had come off Trudeau by then. And it would get worse for the Liberals before it got better.

"One of the issues we've got going for us, ironically, is all of these attacks and criticisms are putting him through tests that the public will watch him pass," an adviser to Trudeau said at the time. "It's an arc. It has a story to it."

That analysis proved reasonably prophetic — not just for the campaign that unfolded that year but for the years in power that followed. Trudeau has governed through Donald Trump and COVID-19. He also has survived his share of self-inflicted controversies, embarrassments and low points.

But most political careers end in defeat. And as the 158-member Liberal caucus gathered in London this week, it was fair to wonder whether their hero had finally come to an obstacle he could not overcome — whether the grinding forces of time and a rising cost of living are finally bringing him to the end of his story.

Trudeau is being tested. Up to now, the test has not been going well for him.

As Liberal MPs came and went from their meetings this week, they were chased by reporters repeating a dozen versions of the same two questions: Why are things going so badly for you? And what are you going to do about it?

Jenica Atwin, the Liberal MP for Fredericton, offered what arguably was both the most novel and the most insightful response when she observed that, for some people, "it's cool not to like our prime minister right now."

Alexandre Mendes, the MP for Brossard—Saint-Lambert near Montreal, noted that "this mood of of unsatisfaction" is hardly unique to Canada. She's not wrong — there isn't a single leader in the G7 whose approval rating is currently above 50 per cent (Trudeau currently has the third-highest approval rating among G7 leaders).

Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said he still detects some residual faith in Trudeau's government.

"There's a lot of anxiety. There's a lot of challenges. There's a lot of things that people feel in their daily lives and the one is about their budget, their family budget. They see things are getting more expensive and they're looking for government to help them. And that I understand … I see it in my community," Champagne said.

"But that being said, they also tell me, 'You're best placed to have our back. Because we saw it during the pandemic, you had our back.'"

But Champagne's answer also unintentionally explains why the government finds itself trailing the Conservative opposition by a substantial margin in opinion polls.

The government's actions in response to COVID-19 were quick, direct and overwhelming. Even when it wasn't perfect, the response was seen and felt.