Will there be a ‘tipping point’ for Putin as businesses exit Russia? Experts doubt it

The exodus of Western brands and major industries over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine will hurt the average Russian more than sway Putin, experts warn.

A growing number of top Western brands and business interests are exiting Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, hoping to pressure Moscow — and specifically President Vladimir Putin — to reverse course.

But while the shuttering of shops and rising economic impact will lead to pain for the average Russian, experts say it’s unlikely that will change Putin’s mind in the short term. Only a sustained revolt, both in the streets and in the Kremlin, may have an effect, they say — and by then, plenty of damage will have been done.

“There’s so much destruction and death going on in Ukraine right now, and there’s going to be a lot more before anything like (a course correction) is going to happen,” said Lisa Sundstrom, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia.

“The same can certainly be said for the Russian people at home.”

McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca Cola and Pepsi announced on Tuesday they are temporarily suspending operations and sales in Russia because of the ongoing conflict, which has sparked a refugee crisis and accusations by Ukraine of war crimes.

Yum Brands, the parent company of KFC and Pizza Hut, said late Tuesday it planned to temporarily close 70 company-owned KFC restaurants in Russia and was in talks with franchise owners to do the same for all 50 Pizza Hut restaurants.

All of those closures, coupled with the plummeting value of the ruble and the halting of financial transactions by Visa and Mastercard, will hit the average Russian hard, said University of Washington law professor Anita Ramasastry.

“We’re really in uncharted waters here,” said Ramasastry, who also serves on the United Nations Working Group on Business and Human Rights.