Why it’s not all doom and gloom for commercial real estate
CNN
After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall.
A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Office and retail property valuations have been falling since the pandemic changed where people live and work, and how they shop. The Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates have also hurt the credit-dependent industry. The effects have been felt around the world, with banks from the US to Japan, Switzerland and Germany forced to write off billions in bad debts. Shares of New York Community Bancorp — battered by real estate losses — are down 66% so far this year. But some analysts are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, says that she’s starting to see some upside in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Those are bonds backed by a pool of commercial real estate loans and secured by properties like office buildings, retail shops and apartments.
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