Why experts are skeptical of Elon Musk’s lofty pro-Trump predictions based on early vote data
CNN
Tech billionaire Elon Musk has issued a series of political predictions this week, based on strong Republican showings in early voting turnout data, that former President Donald Trump is “trending toward a crushing victory” in Pennsylvania and that Vice President Kamala Harris should even be “worried about losing Virginia.”
Tech billionaire Elon Musk has issued a series of political predictions this week, based on strong Republican showings in early voting turnout data, that former President Donald Trump is “trending toward a crushing victory” in Pennsylvania and that Vice President Kamala Harris should even be “worried about losing Virginia.” Musk’s predictions are based on publicly available analysis of ballots returned so far in pre-election voting, which won’t be tallied until Election Day. But voting experts say that because of gaps in the data, this isn’t a statistically sound method to game out election winners – and could sow confusion and doubts about the eventual results when ballots are counted. “Based on all credible data, this race is going to be extremely close,” said David Becker, an expert on voting procedures who runs the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research. “No rational person should be surprised if either candidate wins.” This isn’t a Musk-only phenomenon. Partisans from both sides routinely cite early voting data to promote their candidates and express optimism or try to juice turnout based on supposedly weak numbers. Social media sites are flooded with prognostications from Democratic consultants, right-wing pundits, journalists and self-styled voting experts. Musk, the richest man in the world, endorsed Trump and has given $118 million to his own pro-Trump super PAC. He also has a long history of promoting false and misleading information about elections. Some experts worry that Musk’s grandiose predictions of a “crushing” Trump win in Pennsylvania – where polls are tight – and other states could prime his legions of diehard followers to question the legitimacy of the results if Trump loses. Other pro-Trump figures and outlets have pushed similar narratives about the inevitability of a Trump victory.
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