Why Canada’s food inflation may get worse before it gets better

Supply chain snarls engulfing global trade are complicating the task of keeping Canada supplied with out-of-season fruits and veggies. And the price of beef may continue to climb.

When it comes to food prices, Canadians may be in for an expensive winter.

Canada’s inflation rate reached 4.7 per cent in October, the fastest rate increase in almost 19 years. Food inflation for the month stood at 3.8 per cent, but as the growing season ends in Canada and the U.S. for many kinds of fresh produce, Canadians may be in for more sticker shock at the grocery store.

Food inflation is notoriously volatile. For example, prices can swing up or down considerably depending on the weather.

And in the winter it’s not uncommon to see produce prices climb by 10 per cent or more simply because they’re being imported from further afield, says Michael von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph.

But the supply chain snarls engulfing global trade are complicating the task of keeping Canada supplied with out-of-season fruits and veggies.

Take blueberries. A shipment of them coming from Peru typically takes 10 to 12 days to get to Toronto, says Larry Davidson, CEO of North American Produce Buyers, an Ontario-based buyer and wholesales of international produce.

These days, though, a container of berries easily takes 20 to 25 days to get to destination, Davidson says.

“For us, as a receiver, we will receive product that will arrive distressed,” he says.