When will we know the winner of the U.S. election? Likely not right away

The U.S. presidential race between U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to be extremely close, which means the winner may not be known until after Nov. 5.

The U.S. presidential race between U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to be extremely close, which means the winner may not be known until after Nov. 5.

One key reason why is that election workers across the country will have to count millions of mail-in ballots — including in key battleground states that each have their own rules for handling and counting those votes.

Early voting numbers suggest turnout is expected to be high. Roughly 70 million Americans have already cast a ballot in either early voting or by mail, and more than 67 million mail-in ballots have been requested, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Almost two-thirds of U.S. voters cast an early ballot in 2020 — more than 100 million votes — as the COVID-19 pandemic fuelled an expansion of voting by mail and advance in-person polling. That election wasn’t decided until four days after Election Day as those mailed ballots were counted.

Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University who studies U.S. politics, said this election could take even longer to decide.

“It’s so close,” he said.

“If this all comes down to Pennsylvania, it could take a few more days.”

The latest FiveThirtyEight polling average shows less than two points separate Harris and Trump nationally. In the seven states that could ultimately decide the winner of the Electoral College and the presidency, the gap is just a fraction of one per cent — making every vote consequential.