What to watch for in Monday's 4 federal byelections

Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday in a handful of byelections that political watchers say could expose rifts within the Conservative party and bring a new Liberal cabinet hopeful into the fold.

The Liberals are expected to hold on to seats in Winnipeg and Montreal, said Philippe J. Fournier, the polling analyst behind the 338Canada polling aggregator website.

The Tories, meanwhile, are poised to hang on in rural Ontario and Manitoba seats, he said — but their margins of victory in both ridings could be insightful for those looking to read the political tea leaves.

The closest thing to a nail-biter will likely occur in Oxford, a mostly rural riding in southern Ontario that has been a Conservative stronghold for nearly 20 years.

Party infighting has led to "the nastiest campaign that we've ever seen in our riding," said Dave MacKenzie, who announced he was stepping down from the seat in December.

"It's divided our party and our community."

MacKenzie won in the 2021 federal election with nearly 47 per cent of the vote, a 27-point margin over the Liberal candidate.

But his surprise endorsement of this contest's Liberal candidate, whom he calls "an honest guy," has turned heads — and Fournier said it could eat into the Conservatives' support.

"It's probably going to be Conservative win, but the fact that it's close [in polls] has to scare some Conservatives," he said.

"They cannot start losing Ontario seats if they want to win the next general election."

MacKenzie said he believes the Conservative party parachuted its candidate Arpan Khanna into the riding without due process.

He alleged that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and House Leader Andrew Scheer meddled in their local association by influencing the nomination process and taking away grassroots power.

Khanna helped Poilievre's campaign in Ontario during the leadership campaign and ran as a candidate for Scheer in a Brampton riding in 2019.

MacKenzie said Khanna's nomination has led to people cancelling their Conservative memberships and clawing back donations.