What the Ontario leaders' debate means for the rest of the election campaign

The sharpest blows in the Ontario leaders' debate came from the candidate with the least chance of winning the provincial election.

Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, who went into the debate with the least to lose, unsettled Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford in their direct exchanges with an approach that was both disarming and pointed.

Even if Schreiner's performance doesn't translate into any extra seats for his party on June 2, it could still have an influence on the overall election result if it gives Green candidates enough of a bump in the polls to make a difference in tight races. That would not likely be a good thing for either the Liberals or NDP. 

Both Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath needed to make Monday night into a turning point in the campaign. Each had a mission to prove to those voters who don't want Ford to get a second term that only they can defeat the PCs. 

It's far from clear that either one accomplished that.

For Schreiner, his party's first-ever appearance in a province-wide televised debate provided a chance to make an impression on the biggest audience he has ever had. Schreiner seized the opportunity, speaking in a clear, digestible way and capitalizing on his outsider status in an effort to appeal to voters who are cynical about the other more established parties.

One of his digs at Ford: "He will roll out the red carpets for the Amazons of the world and the big box stores of the world, but when it comes to supporting local farmers, he'll pave over their farmland."

In response to Ford saying his government was "taking care of" nurses, Schreiner confronted Ford with a series of powerful questions. 

"Mr. Ford, have you talked to a nurse lately? Have you talked to a nurse about how disrespected they feel, how overworked and underpaid and underappreciated they are? How insulted they feel being called heroes and then essentially having their wages cut by having them frozen?" 

While Schreiner went on, the debate's split-screen format also showed Ford, and his discomfort was palpable.

Meanwhile, Ford mainly accomplished what he needed to do in the debate, which was not to lose his cool. 

Ford's objective was "do no harm to yourself or your party brand," said Shakir Chambers, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies who worked on the 2018 PC campaign. In a post-debate discussion on CBC Radio, Chambers said Ford pivoted to talking about what he wanted to talk about, rather than taking the bait from his rivals. 

Ford did actually take the bait a few times, perhaps most spectacularly when Del Duca slammed him over education. 

The Liberal leader called Ford's record on education an embarrassment and said he should be ashamed of himself. Ford's response was to describe Stephen Lecce as the best education minister ever.