What the aborted mutiny in Russia says about Putin's long war strategy in Ukraine

The phrase "game changer" gets tossed around rather loosely these days.

It's used as a handy catch-all for important events most people weren't expecting and don't understand — events with consequences that are not immediately apparent.

The abortive march of Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Moscow over the weekend neatly falls into the category of the unexpected and puzzling. Legions of pundits around the world have been offering conflicting views on what it all means for President Vladimir Putin and the brutal war his regime continues to prosecute in neighbouring Ukraine.

It was interesting and disturbing to watch so many people on social media breathlessly cheering on Prigozhin in the early hours of his revolt — until it was patiently explained to them that the head of the Wagner Group was an advocate for a form of war in Ukraine far harsher than the one being waged now.

Much of the commentary over the past few days has focused on how the barely-averted mutiny represents a "game changer" in that it undermines Putin's domestic political position and exposes rifts within Russia's military architecture.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a stab at dialing back the frenzy Monday. "Everyone has a lot of questions about what this actually means," Trudeau said during a visit to Iceland to meet with regional leaders to discuss the war, "but we don't yet have a lot of answers."

He called it a matter for Russia to work through and said that too much speculation probably would be "extremely counterproductive."

WATCH: Belarusian opposition leader reacts to Wagner revolt

Andrew Rasiulis, a defence expert with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said it's more productive to look at what the mutiny says about Putin's strategy of a long war — one that's meant to grind down Ukraine's will to resist and drive wedges among western allies.

The war, he said, cannot just keep chugging along the way it has — not now that there's been an open revolt and Russia is being threatened internally.

"I just don't think you can say, 'Let's just keep doing what we were doing,'" said Rasiulis, who used to be in charge of arms control policy at the Department of National Defence.

"This weekend changes things. I think he's got to come up with something new."

Asking what Putin and the Russian military establishment can do now means stepping off the edge into the kind of speculation Trudeau believes should be avoided.

Rasiulis said he believes the events of the weekend invariably must lead to some kind of military doubling-down by Putin — but what that would look like remains to be seen.