What New Mexico's special election can tell us about the midterms
CNN
Tuesday's special election to represent New Mexico's 1st District in Congress is just one race. No matter who wins -- likely the Democratic candidate Melanie Stansbury -- control of Congress won't change.
Yet, this race will also be one of our first insights into the political environment a little more than four months into President Joe Biden's administration. Federal special elections, as a group, usually give us a fairly good idea how midterms are going to go. Democrats barely won the House of Representatives in 2020. They took the national House popular vote by 3 points, leading to a small 5-seat majority. Any movement in the national environment toward the GOP is likely to result in the Democrats losing control of the chamber.
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