What happens if the House votes on the social spending bill this week without Manchin's blessing

Here’s the problem if House Democrats push a vote this week on the social spending package in the face of threatened opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV):

Keep in mind that Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., has backed away slightly from the demand that the bill be signed off on by the likes of Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz. Jayapal has now pivoted to asserting that she presumes the Senate will pass something progressives will accept — because it has buy-in from President Biden.  Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., arrives to meet with the Democratic Caucus at the Capitol in Washington, early Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021. Even as Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is wavering over supporting President Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion domestic policy package, Democratic leaders are vowing to push ahead, with voting possible on the bill this week.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, updates reporters after meeting with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and fellow Democrats as President Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion domestic policy package remains in limbo, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) The Capitol is seen at dawn in Washington, on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

A unilateral vote by the House this week likely means the Senate must change things. It also means that progressives may not get something back that they’re enthused by — unless President Biden gives them air cover.