Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election

With Indigenous population growth outpacing the rest of the province, there may come a year where the needs of First Nations, Métis and Inuit peoples will be front and centre in a Manitoba election campaign.

This was not that year.

One of the two leading parties in this province spent the last 12 days of the formal election period campaigning for votes based of its opposition to searching the Prairie Green Landfill, north of Winnipeg, for the remains of two First Nations women police believe are the victims of a serial killer.

The other leading party, led by a man poised to potentially become the only First Nations premier in Manitoba history as of tomorrow, has chosen to tiptoe to some extent around Indigenous concerns, lest its leader and his party be deemed  too invested in First Nations voters' needs in the minds of the rest of the electorate.

The decision by Manitoba Progressive Conservatives to lean hard into its landfill search opposition in the latter days of this campaign may go down in provincial political history as one of the riskiest campaign moves ever made by this party.

There are several forms of risk at play, the first being obvious: turning off socially progressive conservatives — in a province where red Tories remain a significant portion of the electorate — as part of an effort to fire up the most conservative members of their base.

"They're trying to defend their strongholds across the province, particularly what will be left of those strongholds in Winnipeg," said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

"Some campaign managers just know that they have to get nasty with their messaging. It has to be hard-hitting at this late stage to grab voters' attention."

The PCs will learn tomorrow whether this gambit alienated those in the progressive wing of the party — leading those voters to stay home on election day or change their vote — more than it fired up other conservatives. 

"I think a lot of people are saying 'this isn't the party that it used to be, that I used to support'," said University of Brandon political scientist Kelly Saunders.

"People that feel that this party is veering too much to the right and going into those dog-whistle areas, like parental rights, and the landfill are associating Wab Kinew with crime."

The other form of risk is not so immediate. Party leader Heather Stefanson spent more than two decades in the Manitoba Legislature developing a reputation as a moderate consensus builder, but she could see her political legacy tarnished by the PC gambit.

There are parallels between Stefanson and former St. Vital councillor Gord Steeves, who spent 11 years at Winnipeg's city hall, and was known as an affable, moderate politician who was more of a blue Liberal than a red Tory. After Steeves' run for mayor in 2014 initially faltered, he took his campaign hard to the right — raising questions about who he really was as a politician.

Saunders said voters may be asking similar questions about Stefanson.