'We could take it': Manitoba better braced to face a 1997-level flood, experts say

As Manitobans build sandbag walls and watch riverbanks vanish under ever-swelling water levels, ghosts of the 1997 flood of the century have returned exactly 25 years later.

But this time around, experts say the province is on more solid ground.

"No doubt there would still be a lot of work associated with it. But there's no question we are in a better position than we were in '97," said Russ Andrushuk, assistant deputy minister for Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure.

The same confidence is expressed by University of Manitoba civil engineering Prof. Jay Doering, an expert in hydrology who worked with the Manitoba Floodway Authority during the 1997 deluge and later on the floodway expansion committee.

"If a 1997 flood were to occur again, I wouldn't say that we wouldn't break a sweat, but I think we could take it and there really wouldn't be any reason for significant concern," he said.

This spring could test that theory. Communities along the Red River Valley are being told a major-level flood is almost a certainty.

On Friday, provincial flood forecasters said the coming flood could approach the volume of the 2009 flood, which was the highest since '97.

Manitoba has been pounded by one snowiest winters on record and by four significant precipitation systems in April alone. The third Colorado low in as many weeks is headed into the province this weekend, bringing 30-80 millimetres of rain to southern Manitoba.

Last weekend, a similar system inundated Winnipeg with 50-70 millimetres of rain and even more to the south, including in the United States, on land that feeds into the Red River and its tributaries.

"We're going through a little bit crazy weather this year," said Fisaha Unduche, executive director of Manitoba's hydrologic forecast centre.

Manitoba has received 200 to 500 per cent of normal precipitation for April, when there's typically 28 mm, Unduche said.

"Most creeks and rivers are already full with the previous system and the snow melt," and the ground is saturated, he said. "This precipitation could just add more water into the system."

The Red's swollen crest is now predicted to arrive in Manitoba in mid-May.

When the '97 crest arrived, more than 22,000 people had been chased out of about 20 communities along the valley, turning them into ghost towns, save for those designated to keep watch.