Warmest fall on record for many Kivalliq communities set to break next week as winds shift

The unusually warm weather hanging over the Kivalliq region of Nunavut is poised to end this weekend, but the lingering effects of the warmest fall on record for many communities have yet to be seen.

October brought record-setting heat to many parts of the Arctic, prompting some people in Arviat to swap their winter boots for rubber ones and don shorts to go skating. Temperatures stayed higher than average in November as well.

Arviat, Baker Lake, Rankin Inlet and Cambridge Bay all had their warmest falls on record, while Resolute Bay had its second warmest.

That's all set to end after this weekend, when Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says cold air is set to move in.

"That will hopefully break that pattern and get the bay frozen up as well," Lang said.

Jason Ross, a senior ice forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service, says the Kivalliq region is on the verge of a temperature shift.

Some areas, such as Rankin Inlet, are now under a blizzard warning. High winds from the north should sweep through the region this weekend, cooling the waters of Hudson Bay and pushing coastal ice outward, allowing new ice to form along the coast. As winds calm next week, he said he expects a "rapid freeze event" to happen.

Harry Towtongie, the mayor of Rankin Inlet, says low ice levels in the region mean hunters have had to change the way they access the land. Lakes, rivers and the bay would usually be frozen before November, but that still hasn't happened in some areas.

"They've had to take long routes up the inlet and along on the land," he said. "That's the most impact we've noticed — we can't just cross the lakes and rivers."

Ross told CBC the warm weather means just 13 per cent of Hudson Bay was covered with ice by the end of October — compared to 70 or 80 per cent in an average year.

He could find just three other years on record where ice levels were so low: in 2016, there was 19 per cent ice coverage; in 2011, it was 16 per cent; and 17 per cent in 1998.

"We've seen a trend throughout the ice climatology, since the mid-90s, that we have seen quite a bit of decline in the ice — it forms later in the year and in general it's thinner," he said.

"These periods of low ice are happening more and more often.

It isn't clear yet how or if the aftershocks of record-breaking heat will impact the rest of the season.