Warmer winters, hotter summers projected for Calgary, new analysis finds
CBC
Calgary and other Canadian communities need to prepare for dramatic changes to winter and summer temperatures, suggests a new municipal-level analysis of climate projections for the coming decades.
The Local News Data Hub at Ryerson University compared temperatures from 1951-80 with projections for the period 2051-80 using data from ClimateData.ca, a national data initiative bringing together scientists from university, government and private-sector organizations.
The results for 30 cities and towns show that in most locations there will be fewer days when the thermometer drops below zero. Residents accustomed to deep-freeze cold will encounter temperatures below –15 C less often.
Sweltering summer heat above 30 C will be more common.
In the case of Calgary, the projections show that by 2051-80:
The Data Hub's analysis is based on what climate scientists call a moderate emissions scenario.
The scenario is more ambitious than global attempts at reducing emissions to date, but also more pessimistic than the net-zero emissions targets that Canada and other countries worldwide pledged to reach in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The projections from the federally funded ClimateData.ca portal are based on 24 different climate models.
Comparing 30-year averages ensures that what is described reflects the overall climate and not the more variable experience of weather.
The 2051-80 projections are presented as a range to capture both the lower (10th percentile) and higher end (90th percentile) of the models' outcomes.
WATCH | What net zero could actually mean in today's changing energy landscape:
With the closing of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP26, in Glasgow, Scotland, many leaders face increasing pressures in their countries to embrace deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and other measures to slow global warming.
Prior to the summit, a United Nations report warned that the planet is currently headed for a temperature rise of 2.7 C by the end of the century that will "lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth's climate."
The reduction in cold days is no reason to rejoice, cautioned Greg Flato, a senior climate scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, because many Canadian ecosystems depend on extreme cold to kill pests and produce snow that stores the water needed later in the year.
This First Person column is the experience of Shannon Flaman, who lives in Red Deer, Alta. For more information about CBC's First Person stories, please see the FAQ.
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