Victory or not losing: Ukraine knows what it wants, but experts wonder if NATO leaders do

The sunlit conference room at the luxury German resort of Elmau Castle, nestled in the green mountain folds of Bavaria, was about as far removed from the bloody, missile-littered landscape of Ukraine as one can get.

That is both a literal and figurative statement.

The leaders of the world's wealthiest democracies, some of them in crisp white shirt-sleeves that ease the heat, listened attentively to Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, dressed in his now-signature green combat T-shirt, as he spoke via video conference on the big screen before launching into questions and laundry lists of what each of them had done.

They spoke, all told, for about two hours, according to several Western officials. 

G7 leaders spent their three days together surveying the economic wreckage of the war, both in Ukraine, the West and throughout the wider world where soaring inflation, energy costs and food prices threaten to distract and even erode support for the battered and bleeding Eastern European country.

On the way out to the door to the NATO Summit in Madrid, Canada Tuesday announced another fiscal lifeline for Zelensky's government; a $200 million loan through the International Monetary Fund, among other things, to help keep the Ukrainian government afloat.

In case you're keeping track, Canada has committed $1.6 billion in loans and $1.3 billion in direct support to Ukraine, including $320 million in humanitarian assistance, according to the Prime Minister's Office.

There was a lot of talk around the table about denying Russia victory in Ukraine. There's a difference between not losing, and winning. In some instances, there can be a subtle distinction, but when it comes to the war in Ukraine it can be debated that it is an existential separation.

Zelensky has been clear. Restoration of Ukraine's internationally recognized boundaries is his war aim, although — at weak moments — there have been suggestions of compromise.

The G7 leaders left their posh retreat without a clear vision of what victory looks like for them because the way things have unraveled on the world stage, it is fair to say we all have a stake in this matter. 

"I think that the U.S. is all-in, and they want to see Ukraine win," said Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.

"I think that the Americans see [French President Emmanuel] Macron as pushing to help Ukraine not lose completely. Now, it is, as yet, unclear what any of these sides think of winning — in other words what victory means. Right?"

For his part, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he believes the Ukrainians have to decide what victory looks like and now may not be the time to do that.

"If and when President Zelensky and Ukraine has decided it's time to negotiate or move forward to resolving, to ensure that Russia faces defeat in Ukraine, they need to be able to negotiate from a position of force — a position of strength," he said.