Venezuela under Maduro — authoritarianism and economic chaos | Data

The country’s annual inflation rate skyrocketed to five digits, along with shortages of basic supplies. It slid down the democracy index and touched new highs on bribery indices. Humanitarian and economic conditions have triggered a mass exodus, with as many as 7.7 million Venezuelans fleeing the country.

On July 28, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro returned to power after a controversial election, whose results have been disputed by the Opposition and several countries. The unpopularity of Mr. Maduro’s regime is not under question as he oversaw an economy that descended into a free fall in his 11 years in power. The country’s annual inflation rate skyrocketed to five digits, along with shortages of basic supplies. It slid down the democracy index and touched new highs on bribery indices. Humanitarian and economic conditions have triggered a mass exodus, with as many as 7.7 million Venezuelans fleeing the country.

Chart 1 shows how Venezuela’s GDP (in current prices) started declining since Mr. Maduro’s ascent to power in 2013. According to the IMF, Venezuela’s real GDP saw the most protracted contraction in modern history during the last decade. Between 2013 and 2021, the economy contracted by 75%, the largest for any country not at war. 

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Chart 2 plots Venezuela’s annual inflation rate. The country’s inflation spiralled to a peak of 65,374% resulting in hyperinflation in 2018 and remained in more than three digits for nine years.

Chart 3 shows how Venezuela fares on two indices maintained by the V-dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute — the liberal democracy index and the executive corruption index.

Since 1999 — which heralded the era of Chavismo with Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, coming to power — the country dropped on the liberal democracy index and underwent a rise on the corruption index. As of 2023, V-dem classifies the country as an electoral autocracy. Mr. Chavez’s rise coincided with a popular movement against the entrenched two-party system which was seen as failing to empower the masses. His regime sought to redistribute revenues from its flourishing petroleum extraction industry into welfare and this ensured that the country’s dependence on this industry became even more entrenched.

Venezuela sits on the world’s largest crude reserves. As Chart 4 shows, Venezuela’s petroleum exports formed about 80% of the country’s exports and remained in the range, 70% to 96%, between 1960 and 2023, making the country a “petrostate”. Petroleum exports also amount to 14% of the country’s GDP (as of 2023) and until 2019 remained over and above the 20% mark.