Vance or Harris: Does a VP pick help win the US election?

Decades of research shows that VP picks rarely swing the vote – in key states or among vital demographics.

On Monday, Donald Trump picked Ohio Senator JD Vance as his Republican running mate in the United States presidential election, following weeks of speculation over who the real estate mogul and ex-president would choose.

On the opposing ticket, meanwhile, is Kamala Harris, running with Democrat Joe Biden. Harris is the incumbent VP who ran with Biden in 2020, when the California senator became the first Black woman and the first Asian American to compete on a major party’s presidential ticket.

Since the Vance announcement, analysts have pored over possible reasons why Trump might have selected the former venture capitalist and author who until a few years ago was a trenchant critic of the ex-president.

But does the choice of VP actually boost a presidential candidate’s chances of winning the election? Al Jazeera breaks down decades of election results, polls and analysis to find out.

That’s often a central consideration that political insiders cite – the hope that the VP pick might help the ticket win his or her state.