Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls: The BJP Vs Akhilesh Yadav
NDTV
Most exit polls have predicted a convincing victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. But opinion polls can be wrong.
Most opinion polls forecast that the BJP is going to win by a clear and convincing margin, although, on average, the BJP is forecast to win about 100 seats fewer than in the 2017 landslide.
But opinion polls can be wrong. How can we rely on opinion polls when the record of polls in the recent West Bengal election, held in May, was not that good (see Figure 2) - with the consensus being of a close fight with a slight edge for the BJP. The actual result was of course an unprecedented landslide for Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress.
When polls (and many commentators) cannot see a landslide, it undermines our confidence in polls. Has an underlying fear-factor hit a peak among ordinary voters who answer poll questions, accompanied by a widespread decline in trust?
Figure 2
