UP Election: Is Caste The Only Factor? What's Overlooked

Elections in seats of different characteristics don't wholly swing one way or the other.

The default observation of many political commentators is that every vote in UP is determined by the caste of the voter; every victory or defeat is the consequence of cast combinations of parties and candidates. This is often taken to the extreme opinion that 90+% of Yadavs vote for the Samajwadi Party, 90+% of Brahmins vote for the BJP, 90+% of Dalits (Jatavs) vote for the BSP. 

Almost all opinion polls show that the upper limit of caste-based support is closer to 60% - and nowhere near 90%. There are several other issues - prices, unemployment, anti-incumbency, law and order - that turn a voter from their 'caste-based-party' to others.

How is caste-voting reflected in the final election result? An analysis of earlier UP election results shows that caste does matter - but perhaps nowhere near as overwhelmingly as is widely thought. The complex realignment of other castes in a confrontational election makes the 80%-90% alignment an over-simplification.

The data for each party's vote in their caste-stronghold seats is an indication - not conclusive, though - that some re-thinking is needed on the view that only caste matters.