Understanding Election 2024 is more than just reading polls

Election 2024 polls don't tell voters everything they need to know. They should analyze both of the presidential candidates and look at one key point. Five major issues impact it.

Which – importantly – does not mean that they’re ready to support Biden. Indeed, all polls suggest many are very much not ready to vote for Biden. And, voting in America is never an either/or option: Voters can vote for one of the two major party candidates, they can vote for a third-party nominee (there will be a bunch this November), or they can just stay home.  The enthusiasm that enabled Trump to outperform polling expectations in both 2016 and 2020 seems to still be there among Republicans. It’s why his number in general election polling still hovers between 45 and 50. To the extent that the election is a referendum on Trump, the vast bulk of his 2016 and 2020 supporters thinks things were just better when he was president.  Arnon Mishkin is director of the Fox News decision desk.

The Democrats respond by trying to camouflage the scratches of panic from their throats – "polls a year away don’t matter" … "the election will change once folks think about the choice" and my all-time favorite "the abortion issue will work (just like in 2022)."